Russia’s War in Ukraine

News, analysis, and background on military campaigns, battlefield technology, and global diplomacy, negotiations, and sanctions.

A fiery orange and black explosion behind a gray razor wire fence.
A fiery orange and black explosion behind a gray razor wire fence.

Ukraine Is Hitting Russia Where It Hurts: Its Oil Refineries

Kyiv’s two-year offensive against Russian oil facilities has intensified, eating away at Moscow’s energy revenues.

Analysis
Keith Johnson
Russian flags fly above the graves of Russian soldiers
Russian flags fly above the graves of Russian soldiers

Russia’s Next Opposition Will Not Be Liberal

Army corruption and mass death are breeding new dissent—deep inside Vladimir Putin’s loyal core.

Analysis
Alexey Kovalev
A man holds a drone in Ukraine.
A man holds a drone in Ukraine.

Ukraine Needs More Drones

Tight cooperation with Beijing and Tehran is giving Moscow an edge on the critical weapons.

Analysis
Sam Skove
A woman in a red face mask and a coat over a red hoodie stands on a sidewalk, holding a laptop and speaking on her phone. Cars drive past behind her, with a suitcase and an international airport visible in the background.
A woman in a red face mask and a coat over a red hoodie stands on a sidewalk, holding a laptop and speaking on her phone. Cars drive past behind her, with a suitcase and an international airport visible in the background.

Putin vs. the Press

You’d have to be fearless or a fanatic to persist in journalism in Russia. These women are both.

Review
Anastasia Edel
Putin gives an interview
Putin gives an interview

From Moldova to Africa, Russia’s Power Is Waning

The defeat of Moscow-friendly parties in the Moldovan election is just the latest of many setbacks.

Analysis
Adrian Karatnycky, Alexander J. Motyl
Donald Trump leaves UNGA following his speech
Donald Trump leaves UNGA following his speech

Europe Is on Its Own With Russia Now

Donald Trump’s latest U-turn on Ukraine doesn’t change the naked truth for Europe.

Analysis
Christian Caryl

Battlefield Strategy

A Tomahawk missile launches from a boat
A Tomahawk missile launches from a boat

Why the White House Is Considering Tomahawks for Ukraine

The move makes sense for U.S. strategy, but it may cause heartburn for isolationist and Pacific-focused Pentagon leaders.

Analysis
Sam Skove
Soldiers of the 115th Mechanized Brigade in a house where they are staying when not on the front lines near Lyman, Ukraine.
Soldiers of the 115th Mechanized Brigade in a house where they are staying when not on the front lines near Lyman, Ukraine.

The Mood on the Front Line, Three Years On

Ukrainian troops watch with anxiety as the United States moves closer to talks with Russia over the war.

Dispatch
Fabrice Deprez
Drones fly above grass in an open field dotted with trees and small sheds.
Drones fly above grass in an open field dotted with trees and small sheds.

How Russia Is Escalating the Drone Arms Race

Routine strikes involve smaller, daily launches designed to keep steady pressure on Ukraine. This article has an audio recording

Analysis
Yasir Atalan
The oil tanker Eagle S is seen anchored near the Kilpilahti port in Porvoo, on the Gulf of Finland, on Jan. 7.
The oil tanker Eagle S is seen anchored near the Kilpilahti port in Porvoo, on the Gulf of Finland, on Jan. 7.

The ‘Paper Tiger’ Still Has Its Shadow Fleet

Trump says Russia is in economic trouble—but there's a loophole in the West's sanctions.

Argument
Petras Katinas

Wartime Diplomacy

From left, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky speaks during a bilateral meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York City.
From left, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky speaks during a bilateral meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York City.

Trump Makes U-Turn on Ukraine Rhetoric

Trump says Ukraine can win back all of its territory.

Report
Sam Skove
A Finnish defender is seen near the front during the Finnish-Soviet Winter War in early 1940.
A Finnish defender is seen near the front during the Finnish-Soviet Winter War in early 1940.

The Ghost of Finlandization Is Haunting the Ukraine Debate

A 1944 armistice that traded land for peace is a poor precedent for ending Russia’s war. This article has an audio recording

Analysis
Kristi Raik
U.S. President Donald Trump announces U.S. strikes on Iran with Vice President J.D. Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth standing alongside, at the White House in Washington on June 21.
U.S. President Donald Trump announces U.S. strikes on Iran with Vice President J.D. Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth standing alongside, at the White House in Washington on June 21.

An Emerging Trump Doctrine?

Success in the Middle East could be a template for a new approach to Russia’s war.

Argument
Adrian Karatnycky
Workers construct an outdoor ice skating rink in Red Square in downtown Moscow on Nov. 9, 2021.
Workers construct an outdoor ice skating rink in Red Square in downtown Moscow on Nov. 9, 2021.

What the Next Round of Sanctions Against Russia Should Look Like

Moscow has successfully restructured its economy on an impressive war footing, but there are weaknesses under the hood. This article has an audio recording

Argument
Nicholas Fenton, Maria Snegovaya

Regional Dynamics

U.S. Marines take part in the international military exercise Cold Response 22 near Sandstrand in northern Norway on March 21, 2022.
U.S. Marines take part in the international military exercise Cold Response 22 near Sandstrand in northern Norway on March 21, 2022.

A Russia-NATO War Would Look Nothing Like Ukraine

Moscow will seek to avoid a full-on war and focus on breaking the bloc’s resolve. This article has an audio recording

Analysis
Fabian Hoffmann
Macron, Starmer, and Merz talk at a summit in Tirana, Albania
Macron, Starmer, and Merz talk at a summit in Tirana, Albania

Europe’s Delusions Over What It Means to Deter Russia

Leaders are afraid to tell voters what it will take to defend their continent. This article has an audio recording

Analysis
Franz-Stefan Gady
The oil tanker Eagle S next to Finnish border guard ship Uisko and tugboat Ukko in the Gulf of Finland on December 28, 2024.
The oil tanker Eagle S next to Finnish border guard ship Uisko and tugboat Ukko in the Gulf of Finland on December 28, 2024.

Anchors Away

Finland’s failure to convict Russian crew clears the way for more cable-cutting attacks.

Argument
Elisabeth Braw
A photo of two white tanks near a yellow crane. A blue-and-white tanker carrying liquified natural gas is docked nearby in snow and sea ice. White smoke billows out of its smokestack.
A photo of two white tanks near a yellow crane. A blue-and-white tanker carrying liquified natural gas is docked nearby in snow and sea ice. White smoke billows out of its smokestack.

The China-Russia Axis Is Getting Firmer, and It’s Built on Gas

Moscow pivoted to the east a decade ago, but it is now besmitten—or captive.

Analysis
Keith Johnson

Latest Stories

U.S. President Donald Trump greets Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the White House in Washington, DC on August 18.
U.S. President Donald Trump greets Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the White House in Washington, DC on August 18.

Grading Trump’s Ukraine Diplomacy

Key takeaways from a spate of high-level meetings in Alaska and Washington. This article has an audio recording

Insider
Ravi Agrawal
(First row, from left) Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, French President Emmanuel Macron, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen pose for a family picture during a “coalition of the willing” summit at the Elysee Palace in Paris on March 27.
(First row, from left) Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, French President Emmanuel Macron, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen pose for a family picture during a “coalition of the willing” summit at the Elysee Palace in Paris on March 27.

How Europe Can Pressure Putin—Without Trump

Now that Trump appears to have sworn off additional economic sanctions to push Russia into a cease-fire, Europe may have to go it alone. This article has an audio recording

Analysis
Keith Johnson
A military plane looms over Putin's head as he walks on a runway.
A military plane looms over Putin's head as he walks on a runway.

To Get Peace in Ukraine, Trump Should Play the Nuclear Card

The White House needs to learn from the Kremlin’s success with nuclear blackmail.

Argument
Matthew Kroenig
U.S. President Donald Trump greets Russian President Vladimir Putin on the tarmac at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson in Anchorage, Alaska, on Aug. 15.
U.S. President Donald Trump greets Russian President Vladimir Putin on the tarmac at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson in Anchorage, Alaska, on Aug. 15.

Trump’s Putin Gambit Failed—but Maybe It Was Still Worth Trying

Successful diplomacy of any kind requires some kind of high-stakes compromise.

Analysis
Michael Hirsh
Vladimir Puting gives a speech while standing behind a podium. In the background are a few people on stage sitting in chairs and many people off stage sitting down.
Vladimir Puting gives a speech while standing behind a podium. In the background are a few people on stage sitting in chairs and many people off stage sitting down.

The Battle Inside Russia’s Elite

As wealthy Russians maneuver to shift blame for the costs of Moscow’s war, Washington can subtly shift their incentives.

Argument
Kirill Shamiev
Russian President Vladimir Putin attends a meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump during the G-20 summit in Osaka, Japan, on June 28, 2019.
Russian President Vladimir Putin attends a meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump during the G-20 summit in Osaka, Japan, on June 28, 2019.

The Risks of the Trump-Putin Summit

Experts weigh in on what they’re watching for in Alaska.

Analysis
John Haltiwanger
Putin walks on a patterned tile floor in a brightly lit room, both arms outstretched and his palms facing up as he smiles. Russian flags and a bronze statue are visible decorating the room in the background.
Putin walks on a patterned tile floor in a brightly lit room, both arms outstretched and his palms facing up as he smiles. Russian flags and a bronze statue are visible decorating the room in the background.

Trump Piles the Pressure on Putin

So far, it’s more signals than sanctions.

Analysis
Rishi Iyengar, Keith Johnson
Russian President Vladimir Putin stands at a podium in front of a submarine.
Russian President Vladimir Putin stands at a podium in front of a submarine.

Russia’s Submarine Plans Are Bad News for the West

Moscow can challenge foreign navies under the waves. This article has an audio recording

Analysis
Elisabeth Braw
Trump sits on an upholstered chair in the Oval Office, leaning forward slightly as he rests his hands on his knees. Rutte sits in a matching chair next to him, his hand on his chin. Vice President J.D. Vance and others sit on a sofa to the right, microphones on poles hanging over their heads.
Trump sits on an upholstered chair in the Oval Office, leaning forward slightly as he rests his hands on his knees. Rutte sits in a matching chair next to him, his hand on his chin. Vice President J.D. Vance and others sit on a sofa to the right, microphones on poles hanging over their heads.

Do Trump’s Lines in the Sand Mean Anything?

Blustering threats to Putin over Ukraine are reminiscent of Obama’s Syria failure.

Analysis
Luke McGee
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky poses for a photo during the European Political Community summit at the Congress Center in Granada, Spain, on Oct. 5, 2023.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky poses for a photo during the European Political Community summit at the Congress Center in Granada, Spain, on Oct. 5, 2023.

Ukrainians Show Zelensky the Limits of His Power

Forcing the government to retreat on corruption is a triumph of democracy in wartime.

Analysis
Adrian Karatnycky
An illustration shows a missile shooting through the ear of a silhouetted person against a static-y backdrop of the Russian flag.
An illustration shows a missile shooting through the ear of a silhouetted person against a static-y backdrop of the Russian flag.

Russia’s War Is Also Cognitive

To achieve more, Putin needs others to do less. This article has an audio recording

Analysis
Nataliya Bugayova
Protesters shout slogans and hold placards during a demonstration against a law that removes the independence of the NABU and SAPO anti-corruption agencies in Kyiv, Ukraine, on July 24.
Protesters shout slogans and hold placards during a demonstration against a law that removes the independence of the NABU and SAPO anti-corruption agencies in Kyiv, Ukraine, on July 24.

Ukraine’s Cronyism Crisis Offers a Warning to the ‘De-Risking’ World

A series of scandals has put Kyiv’s public institutions under the microscope.

Argument
Luke Cooper
Ukrainians demonstrate against of a new law regulating the work of anti-corruption authorities in Kyiv on July 23.
Ukrainians demonstrate against of a new law regulating the work of anti-corruption authorities in Kyiv on July 23.

Democracy Is Ukraine’s Most Powerful Weapon

Protesters seem to have beaten back Volodymyr Zelensky’s assault on anti-corruption agencies.

Argument
Christian Caryl
A soldier stands in a field with bare trees behind him. He holds a large winged drone up as he launches it against a cloudy dramatic sky.
A soldier stands in a field with bare trees behind him. He holds a large winged drone up as he launches it against a cloudy dramatic sky.

The Air Battle That Could Decide the Russia-Ukraine War

Kyiv’s front-line drone superiority has been slipping away as Moscow’s forces adapt. This article has an audio recording

Analysis
Franz-Stefan Gady
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky (R) meets with U.S. President Donald Trump (L) during Pope Francis’s funeral at St. Peter’s Basilica in Vatican City.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky (R) meets with U.S. President Donald Trump (L) during Pope Francis’s funeral at St. Peter’s Basilica in Vatican City.

Can Trump Be Sold on Supporting Ukraine?

A changeable president seems to be turning against Putin.

Argument
Luke McGee
Trump and Putin
Trump and Putin

Trump’s Ukraine Shift Sends the Right Signal to Putin

But there won’t be peace without additional pressure on the Kremlin.

Argument
Luke Coffey
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